MXL — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Sales engine. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $5.3 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $53.0 B.
Sales +72% last quarter (year over year) and +30% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 58%, operating margin -1%, return on equity -6%.
Free cash flow −$40 M a year = -0.7% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 8.0× sales: 0.16 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 2% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 5.9%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (40%) · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 322 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year MXL is up 295.0%. Over about two years: +274.3%.
- Today it sits 54.3% below its 52-week high ($128.03) and +348.0% above the low ($13.05).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 65.4%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 56% of days. Best day: +76.1%. Worst day: -22.1%.
- Annual volatility around 128%: in a normal year a ±128% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 42% | $58.60 +0.2% | $54.06 – $63.53 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 42% | $58.88 +0.7% | $51.21 – $67.71 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 43% | $59.17 +1.2% | $49.40 – $70.85 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 44% | $59.87 +2.4% | $46.40 – $77.26 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 45% | $61.46 +5.1% | $42.48 – $88.94 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 48% | $67.93 +16.2% | $35.82 – $128.82 |
Recent momentum: -25.2% over 20 days · -12.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for MXL. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about MXL
Could MXL be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 73/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has MXL gone up in the last year?
MaxLinear (MXL) is up 295.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $58.47, 54.3% below its 52-week high ($128.03). 52-week range: $13.05 – $128.03.
How volatile is MXL stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 128% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 65.4%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does MXL have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy MXL?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 46, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 45% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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