NBIS — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Room to grow.
Worth $34.5 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $345 B.
Sales +454% last quarter (year over year) and +351% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 74%, operating margin -37%, return on equity 1%.
Free cash flow −$9.6 B a year = -27.9% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 25.4× sales: 0.17 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 6% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 3.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 61 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year NBIS is up 24.0%. Over about two years: +546.7%.
- Today it sits 55.8% below its 52-week high ($286.69) and +71.6% above the low ($73.87).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 58.0%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +34.1%. Worst day: -18.1%.
- Annual volatility around 127%: in a normal year a ±127% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 41% | $127.06 +0.2% | $117.30 – $137.62 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 41% | $127.66 +0.7% | $111.17 – $146.60 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 41% | $128.27 +1.2% | $107.29 – $153.35 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 42% | $129.81 +2.4% | $100.84 – $167.10 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 43% | $133.25 +5.1% | $92.41 – $192.14 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 46% | $147.27 +16.2% | $78.13 – $277.59 |
Recent momentum: -32.7% over 20 days · -43.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for NBIS. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about NBIS
Could NBIS be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 67/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has NBIS gone up in the last year?
Nebius (NBIS) is up 24.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $126.75, 55.8% below its 52-week high ($286.69). 52-week range: $73.87 – $286.69.
How volatile is NBIS stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 127% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 58.0%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does NBIS have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy NBIS?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 42, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 43% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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