Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 58% | $145.53 -0.0% | $139.71 – $151.60 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 58% | $145.42 -0.1% | $135.48 – $156.07 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 57% | $145.30 -0.2% | $132.62 – $159.19 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 56% | $145.01 -0.4% | $127.44 – $165.00 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 54% | $144.37 -0.8% | $119.73 – $174.09 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 50% | $141.97 -2.5% | $102.66 – $196.33 |
Recent momentum: +16.6% over 20 days · +19.7% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
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The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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