NUVB — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $1.4 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $14.5 B.
Sales +243% last quarter (year over year) and +699% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 86%, operating margin -61%, return on equity -49%.
Free cash flow −$76 M a year = -5.3% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 7.2× sales: 0.05 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 14% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 17.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 22 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year NUVB is down 17.8%. Over about two years: +39.8%.
- Today it sits 57.1% below its 52-week high ($9.54) and +1.1% above the low ($4.05).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 57.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +49.0%. Worst day: -25.3%.
- Annual volatility around 56%: in a normal year a ±56% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 41% | $4.10 +0.1% | $3.95 – $4.25 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $4.10 +0.2% | $3.86 – $4.36 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 40% | $4.11 +0.3% | $3.79 – $4.45 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $4.12 +0.7% | $3.68 – $4.61 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 40% | $4.15 +1.4% | $3.53 – $4.89 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 41% | $4.27 +4.3% | $3.22 – $5.66 |
Recent momentum: -13.8% over 20 days · -43.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for NUVB. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could NUVB be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 77/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has NUVB fallen in the last year?
Nuvation Bio (NUVB) is down 17.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $4.10, 57.1% below its 52-week high ($9.54). 52-week range: $4.05 – $9.54.
How volatile is NUVB stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 56% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 57.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does NUVB have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy NUVB?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 37, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 40% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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