NVMI — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Faro seal and Cash it generates.
Worth $10.4 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $104 B.
Sales +28% last quarter (year over year) and +31% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 57%, operating margin 30%, return on equity 22%.
Free cash flow $153 M a year = 1.5% of its value.
Trades at 10.4× sales: 0.35 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 3% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.3%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 2 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year NVMI is up 5.7%. Over about two years: +60.1%.
- Today it sits 46.1% below its 52-week high ($605.65) and +18.4% above the low ($275.78).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 53.7%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 56% of days. Best day: +11.7%. Worst day: -10.0%.
- Annual volatility around 58%: in a normal year a ±58% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 48% | $326.73 +0.1% | $315.06 – $338.82 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 48% | $327.34 +0.3% | $307.37 – $348.62 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 48% | $327.96 +0.5% | $302.35 – $355.73 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 47% | $329.50 +0.9% | $293.72 – $369.64 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 46% | $332.93 +2.0% | $281.84 – $393.28 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 47% | $346.33 +6.1% | $259.53 – $462.17 |
Recent momentum: -0.9% over 20 days · -15.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for NVMI. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about NVMI
Could NVMI be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 72/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has NVMI gone up in the last year?
Nova (NVMI) is up 5.7% over the last 12 months and trades at $326.42, 46.1% below its 52-week high ($605.65). 52-week range: $275.78 – $605.65.
How volatile is NVMI stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 58% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 53.7%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does NVMI have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy NVMI?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 55, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 46% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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