Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 40% | $39.93 +0.2% | $37.69 – $42.31 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $40.13 +0.7% | $36.31 – $44.35 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 41% | $40.32 +1.2% | $35.43 – $45.87 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $40.80 +2.4% | $33.99 – $48.97 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 42% | $41.88 +5.1% | $32.15 – $54.57 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 45% | $46.29 +16.2% | $29.27 – $73.19 |
Recent momentum: -8.1% over 20 days · -32.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Notice of intent to award for a microreactor at Eielson Air Force Base (Alaska).
💡 First commercial microreactor at an Air Force base: it validates Oklo's model.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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