ONDS — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Business quality.
Worth $3.1 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $31.0 B.
Sales +1235% last quarter (year over year) and +605% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 44%, operating margin -121%, return on equity 19%.
Free cash flow −$69 M a year = -2.2% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 17.8× sales: 0.12 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 43% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 1.8%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 26 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year ONDS is down 8.2%. Over about two years: +577.9%.
- Today it sits 62.0% below its 52-week high ($14.01) and +17.7% above the low ($4.52).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 67.7%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 46% of days. Best day: +29.5%. Worst day: -16.4%.
- Annual volatility around 86%: in a normal year a ±86% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 41% | $5.33 +0.2% | $5.05 – $5.63 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $5.36 +0.7% | $4.88 – $5.89 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 41% | $5.39 +1.2% | $4.77 – $6.08 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $5.45 +2.4% | $4.59 – $6.47 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 42% | $5.59 +5.1% | $4.36 – $7.18 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 46% | $6.18 +16.2% | $4.02 – $9.52 |
Recent momentum: -16.2% over 20 days · -40.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for ONDS. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Contracts Radar: Where $220 billion actually wentTwo months of federal contracts read one by one: 258 awards, which agencies pay, which companies get paid, how much mone…8 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about ONDS
Could ONDS be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 72/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has ONDS fallen in the last year?
Ondas (ONDS) is down 8.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $5.32, 62.0% below its 52-week high ($14.01). 52-week range: $4.52 – $14.01.
How volatile is ONDS stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 86% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 67.7%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does ONDS have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy ONDS?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 42, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 42% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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