Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 42% | $129.87 -0.1% | $125.33 – $134.58 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 41% | $129.72 -0.2% | $121.96 – $137.98 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 41% | $129.57 -0.3% | $119.66 – $140.31 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 39% | $129.20 -0.6% | $115.44 – $144.59 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 38% | $128.37 -1.2% | $109.04 – $151.12 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 34% | $125.27 -3.6% | $94.43 – $166.18 |
Recent momentum: -12.5% over 20 days · +13.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
The purpose of this modification is to add and execute visn 15 deployments
💡 Worth 0.11% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $440 M. Stock since the announcement: -14.8%.
Fdss managed services for visns 17,9,8,1,6,5,7 and 2
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $26 M. Stock since the announcement: -16.2%.
The purpose of this modification is to add/exercise the visn 20 deployments: portland vamc, portland - vancouver vamc, boise vamc, american lake vamc, seattle vamc (va-26-00061315)
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $256 M. Stock since the announcement: -11.4%.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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