OSK — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year OSK is down 1.4%. Over about two years: +26.4%.
- Today it sits 26.0% below its 52-week high ($177.94) and +11.1% above the low ($118.59).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 33.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +7.0%. Worst day: -9.9%.
- Annual volatility around 34%: in a normal year a ±34% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 47% | $131.76 +0.0% | $128.94 – $134.65 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 48% | $131.89 +0.1% | $127.03 – $136.93 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 47% | $132.01 +0.2% | $125.76 – $138.57 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 47% | $132.32 +0.5% | $123.55 – $141.71 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 47% | $133.00 +1.0% | $120.43 – $146.90 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 48% | $135.65 +3.0% | $114.21 – $161.12 |
Recent momentum: -0.8% over 20 days · -7.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 OSK government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Oshkosh Defense LLC, Oshkosh, Wisconsin, was awarded a $31,972,227 modification (P00018) to contract W56HZV-22-D-0004 for systems technical support services for the Family of Heavy Tactical Vehicles systems, trailers, and associated kits.
💡 Stock since the announcement: +4.3%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about OSK
How much has OSK fallen in the last year?
Oshkosh (OSK) is down 1.4% over the last 12 months and trades at $131.70, 26.0% below its 52-week high ($177.94). 52-week range: $118.59 – $177.94.
How volatile is OSK stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 34% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 33.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does OSK have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Army, $32 M, Oct 14, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy OSK?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 48, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 47% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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