PATH — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Sales engine and Faro seal.
Worth $6.8 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $68.0 B.
Sales +13% last quarter (year over year) and +13% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 83%, operating margin 9%, return on equity 20%.
Free cash flow $474 M a year = 7.0% of its value.
Trades at 4.0× sales: 0.30 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 18% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 10.2%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (36%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 20 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year PATH is down 9.2%. Over about two years: -2.3%.
- Today it sits 32.3% below its 52-week high ($19.29) and +39.2% above the low ($9.38).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 51.4%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +24.4%. Worst day: -16.6%.
- Annual volatility around 62%: in a normal year a ±62% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 43% | $13.05 -0.0% | $12.56 – $13.57 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 42% | $13.05 -0.0% | $12.20 – $13.97 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 43% | $13.05 -0.0% | $11.96 – $14.24 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 44% | $13.05 -0.0% | $11.54 – $14.76 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 45% | $13.04 -0.1% | $10.91 – $15.59 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 45% | $13.02 -0.3% | $9.55 – $17.74 |
Recent momentum: -4.8% over 20 days · -17.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for PATH. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about PATH
Could PATH be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 78/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has PATH fallen in the last year?
UiPath (PATH) is down 9.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $13.06, 32.3% below its 52-week high ($19.29). 52-week range: $9.38 – $19.29.
How volatile is PATH stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 62% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 51.4%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does PATH have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy PATH?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 32, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 45% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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