PRCH — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Room to grow. Most lacking: Sales engine and Price vs. growth.
Worth $2.4 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $24.4 B.
Sales +13% last quarter (year over year) and -4% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 72%, operating margin 8%, return on equity 6%.
Free cash flow $4 M a year = 0.2% of its value.
Trades at 4.6× sales: 1.06 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 6% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 21.5%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month high · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 104 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year PRCH is up 105.7%. Over about two years: +533.1%.
- Today it sits 3.6% below its 52-week high ($22.14) and +233.4% above the low ($6.40).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 38.9%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +28.2%. Worst day: -10.8%.
- Annual volatility around 71%: in a normal year a ±71% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 61% | $21.39 +0.2% | $20.45 – $22.37 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 62% | $21.49 +0.7% | $19.88 – $23.23 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 63% | $21.59 +1.2% | $19.53 – $23.87 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 64% | $21.85 +2.4% | $18.95 – $25.19 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 65% | $22.43 +5.1% | $18.25 – $27.56 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 70% | $24.79 +16.2% | $17.35 – $35.42 |
Recent momentum: +21.4% over 20 days · +25.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for PRCH. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could PRCH be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 60/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has PRCH gone up in the last year?
Porch (PRCH) is up 105.7% over the last 12 months and trades at $21.34, 3.6% below its 52-week high ($22.14). 52-week range: $6.40 – $22.14.
How volatile is PRCH stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 71% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 38.9%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does PRCH have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy PRCH?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 63, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 65% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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