QBTS — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Balance sheet and Sales engine. Most lacking: Price vs. growth and Cash it generates.
⚠️ Worth billions with almost no sales yet: the price rests on the story, not the numbers.
Worth $3.8 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $37.8 B.
Sales -1% last quarter (year over year) and +179% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 64%, operating margin -1373%, return on equity -28%.
Free cash flow −$73 M a year = -1.9% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 304.3× sales: 2.90 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 13% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 2.2%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 68 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year QBTS is down 65.6%. Over about two years: +546.8%.
- Today it sits 69.1% below its 52-week high ($32.19) and +10.1% above the low ($9.05).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 71.9%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 45% of days. Best day: +33.4%. Worst day: -14.4%.
- Annual volatility around 89%: in a normal year a ±89% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 41% | $9.98 +0.2% | $9.44 – $10.56 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $10.03 +0.7% | $9.10 – $11.06 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 41% | $10.08 +1.2% | $8.89 – $11.43 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 42% | $10.20 +2.4% | $8.54 – $12.19 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 42% | $10.47 +5.1% | $8.09 – $13.56 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 46% | $11.57 +16.2% | $7.40 – $18.10 |
Recent momentum: -22.3% over 20 days · -48.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for QBTS. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about QBTS
Could QBTS be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 57/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has QBTS fallen in the last year?
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is down 65.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $9.96, 69.1% below its 52-week high ($32.19). 52-week range: $9.05 – $32.19.
How volatile is QBTS stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 89% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 71.9%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does QBTS have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy QBTS?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 40, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 42% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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