QS — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Balance sheet and Room to grow. Most lacking: Business quality and Cash it generates.
Worth $2.4 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $24.0 B.
Not enough sales data.
Gross margin 0%, operating margin 0%, return on equity -35%.
Free cash flow −$135 M a year = -5.6% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at —× sales with no growth to back it.
Net cash equal to 31% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 13.6%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 82 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year QS is down 75.6%. Over about two years: -19.8%.
- Today it sits 75.6% below its 52-week high ($15.91) and +0.0% above the low ($3.88).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 75.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 44% of days. Best day: +16.5%. Worst day: -15.5%.
- Annual volatility around 64%: in a normal year a ±64% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 44% | $3.88 -0.0% | $3.73 – $4.04 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 43% | $3.87 -0.1% | $3.61 – $4.15 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 42% | $3.87 -0.2% | $3.54 – $4.23 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 41% | $3.86 -0.4% | $3.40 – $4.39 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 39% | $3.84 -0.9% | $3.20 – $4.62 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 35% | $3.77 -2.7% | $2.74 – $5.19 |
Recent momentum: -8.3% over 20 days · -34.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for QS. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about QS
Could QS be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 44/100 (weak): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has QS fallen in the last year?
QuantumScape (QS) is down 75.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $3.88, 75.6% below its 52-week high ($15.91). 52-week range: $3.88 – $15.91.
How volatile is QS stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 64% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 75.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does QS have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy QS?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 47, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 39% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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