RCAT — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Sales engine. Most lacking: Business quality and Cash it generates.
Worth $608 M. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $6.1 B.
Sales +527% last quarter (year over year) and +128% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 10%, operating margin -150%, return on equity -34%.
Free cash flow −$117 M a year = -19.3% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 8.5× sales: 0.06 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 51% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 8.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 58 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year RCAT is down 54.1%. Over about two years: +0.3%.
- Today it sits 77.1% below its 52-week high ($17.36) and +16.9% above the low ($3.40).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 80.4%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 46% of days. Best day: +32.6%. Worst day: -14.9%.
- Annual volatility around 88%: in a normal year a ±88% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 41% | $3.98 +0.0% | $3.77 – $4.21 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 40% | $3.98 +0.0% | $3.62 – $4.38 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 40% | $3.98 +0.0% | $3.52 – $4.50 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 39% | $3.98 +0.0% | $3.34 – $4.74 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 38% | $3.98 +0.0% | $3.09 – $5.13 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 36% | $3.98 +0.0% | $2.57 – $6.17 |
Recent momentum: -18.8% over 20 days · -59.8% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for RCAT. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Contracts Radar: Where $220 billion actually wentTwo months of federal contracts read one by one: 258 awards, which agencies pay, which companies get paid, how much mone…8 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about RCAT
Could RCAT be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 66/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has RCAT fallen in the last year?
Red Cat (RCAT) is down 54.1% over the last 12 months and trades at $3.98, 77.1% below its 52-week high ($17.36). 52-week range: $3.40 – $17.36.
How volatile is RCAT stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 88% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 80.4%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does RCAT have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy RCAT?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 45, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 38% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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