RGR — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Business quality and Sales engine.
Worth $802 M. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $8.0 B.
Sales +17% last quarter (year over year) and +2% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 20%, operating margin 3%, return on equity 6%.
Free cash flow $29 M a year = 3.7% of its value.
Trades at 1.3× sales: 0.15 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 12% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 30.3%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month high · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 59 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year RGR is up 58.1%. Over about two years: +23.8%.
- Today it sits 4.9% below its 52-week high ($52.81) and +74.3% above the low ($28.81).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 14.8%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 54% of days. Best day: +10.6%. Worst day: -5.9%.
- Annual volatility around 38%: in a normal year a ±38% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 61% | $50.24 +0.0% | $49.07 – $51.44 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 61% | $50.28 +0.1% | $48.27 – $52.39 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 62% | $50.33 +0.2% | $47.74 – $53.06 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 62% | $50.43 +0.4% | $46.80 – $54.35 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 62% | $50.67 +0.9% | $45.47 – $56.47 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 63% | $51.58 +2.7% | $42.76 – $62.23 |
Recent momentum: +17.0% over 20 days · +31.5% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for RGR. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about RGR
Could RGR be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 69/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has RGR gone up in the last year?
Sturm, Ruger & (RGR) is up 58.1% over the last 12 months and trades at $50.22, 4.9% below its 52-week high ($52.81). 52-week range: $28.81 – $52.81.
How volatile is RGR stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 38% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 14.8%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does RGR have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy RGR?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 66, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 62% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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