RIVN — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Business quality and Cash it generates.
Worth $18.9 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $189 B.
Sales +38% last quarter (year over year) and +8% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 9%, operating margin -53%, return on equity -55%.
Free cash flow −$2.2 B a year = -11.6% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 2.9× sales: 0.12 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 0% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 34.3%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 30 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year RIVN is down 28.3%. Over about two years: +22.1%.
- Today it sits 42.4% below its 52-week high ($22.45) and +13.0% above the low ($11.43).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 49.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 45% of days. Best day: +26.6%. Worst day: -18.1%.
- Annual volatility around 49%: in a normal year a ±49% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 50% | $12.93 +0.0% | $12.53 – $13.33 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 50% | $12.94 +0.1% | $12.26 – $13.65 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 49% | $12.95 +0.2% | $12.08 – $13.87 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 48% | $12.97 +0.4% | $11.76 – $14.30 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 47% | $13.03 +0.8% | $11.31 – $15.01 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 45% | $13.25 +2.5% | $10.36 – $16.94 |
Recent momentum: -0.8% over 20 days · -17.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for RIVN. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about RIVN
Could RIVN be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 51/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has RIVN fallen in the last year?
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is down 28.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $12.92, 42.4% below its 52-week high ($22.45). 52-week range: $11.43 – $22.45.
How volatile is RIVN stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 49% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 49.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does RIVN have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy RIVN?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 59, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 47% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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