SHLS — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $1.4 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $13.8 B.
Sales +44% last quarter (year over year) and +19% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 31%, operating margin 15%, return on equity 6%.
Free cash flow −$35 M a year = -2.5% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 2.1× sales: 0.07 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 14% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 1.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (36%) · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 4 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year SHLS is down 8.3%. Over about two years: +68.9%.
- Today it sits 35.9% below its 52-week high ($12.77) and +43.4% above the low ($5.71).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 47.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 51% of days. Best day: +14.5%. Worst day: -31.0%.
- Annual volatility around 84%: in a normal year a ±84% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 54% | $8.20 +0.1% | $7.77 – $8.65 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 54% | $8.22 +0.3% | $7.49 – $9.01 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 53% | $8.23 +0.5% | $7.31 – $9.27 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 52% | $8.28 +1.1% | $7.00 – $9.79 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 50% | $8.37 +2.2% | $6.56 – $10.68 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 50% | $8.75 +6.8% | $5.74 – $13.33 |
Recent momentum: +5.5% over 20 days · +3.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for SHLS. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about SHLS
Could SHLS be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 63/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has SHLS fallen in the last year?
Shoals Technologies (SHLS) is down 8.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $8.19, 35.9% below its 52-week high ($12.77). 52-week range: $5.71 – $12.77.
How volatile is SHLS stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 84% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 47.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does SHLS have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy SHLS?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 54, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 50% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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