SMMT — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Balance sheet and Room to grow. Most lacking: Business quality and Cash it generates.
Worth $12.2 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $122 B.
Not enough sales data.
Gross margin 0%, operating margin 0%, return on equity -220%.
Free cash flow −$214 M a year = -1.8% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at —× sales with no growth to back it.
Net cash equal to 5% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 80.7%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 22 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year SMMT is down 20.3%. Over about two years: -26.4%.
- Today it sits 42.1% below its 52-week high ($26.38) and +22.8% above the low ($12.43).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 52.9%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +17.3%. Worst day: -24.9%.
- Annual volatility around 78%: in a normal year a ±78% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 51% | $15.26 -0.1% | $14.53 – $16.03 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 51% | $15.24 -0.2% | $14.00 – $16.59 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 50% | $15.22 -0.3% | $13.64 – $16.99 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 50% | $15.18 -0.6% | $12.99 – $17.73 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 48% | $15.07 -1.3% | $12.04 – $18.88 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 44% | $14.69 -3.8% | $9.95 – $21.69 |
Recent momentum: -0.7% over 20 days · +16.5% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for SMMT. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about SMMT
Could SMMT be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 44/100 (weak): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has SMMT fallen in the last year?
Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is down 20.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $15.27, 42.1% below its 52-week high ($26.38). 52-week range: $12.43 – $26.38.
How volatile is SMMT stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 78% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 52.9%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does SMMT have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy SMMT?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 49, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 48% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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