TMDX — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Room to grow. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $3.2 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $32.3 B.
Sales +41% last quarter (year over year) and +37% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 59%, operating margin 12%, return on equity 32%.
Free cash flow $28 M a year = 0.9% of its value.
Trades at 4.4× sales: 0.11 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 12% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 3.7%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (34%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 33 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year TMDX is down 23.9%. Over about two years: +1.6%.
- Today it sits 38.2% below its 52-week high ($150.42) and +49.7% above the low ($62.04).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 58.8%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +27.9%. Worst day: -23.2%.
- Annual volatility around 63%: in a normal year a ±63% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 61% | $92.90 +0.0% | $89.28 – $96.66 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 61% | $92.90 +0.0% | $86.73 – $99.52 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 60% | $92.91 +0.0% | $85.02 – $101.54 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 59% | $92.92 +0.0% | $81.96 – $105.36 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 56% | $92.96 +0.1% | $77.49 – $111.51 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 53% | $93.08 +0.2% | $67.92 – $127.57 |
Recent momentum: +21.4% over 20 days · -1.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for TMDX. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about TMDX
Could TMDX be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 76/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has TMDX fallen in the last year?
TransMedics (TMDX) is down 23.9% over the last 12 months and trades at $92.90, 38.2% below its 52-week high ($150.42). 52-week range: $62.04 – $150.42.
How volatile is TMDX stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 63% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 58.8%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does TMDX have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy TMDX?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 74 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 56% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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