TOST — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Business quality and Faro seal.
Worth $19.7 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $197 B.
Sales +21% last quarter (year over year) and +24% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 27%, operating margin 7%, return on equity 26%.
Free cash flow $482 M a year = 2.4% of its value.
Trades at 2.8× sales: 0.12 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 10% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 5.6%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (76%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 20 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year TOST is down 10.2%. Over about two years: -14.1%.
- Today it sits 11.6% below its 52-week high ($38.34) and +51.7% above the low ($22.33).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 41.8%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 52% of days. Best day: +7.9%. Worst day: -14.7%.
- Annual volatility around 37%: in a normal year a ±37% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 55% | $33.86 -0.0% | $33.08 – $34.67 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 55% | $33.84 -0.1% | $32.49 – $35.25 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 55% | $33.82 -0.2% | $32.09 – $35.65 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 55% | $33.77 -0.3% | $31.35 – $36.38 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 55% | $33.66 -0.6% | $30.22 – $37.49 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 53% | $33.23 -1.9% | $27.58 – $40.05 |
Recent momentum: +5.1% over 20 days · -3.7% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for TOST. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about TOST
Could TOST be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 68/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has TOST fallen in the last year?
Toast (TOST) is down 10.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $33.88, 11.6% below its 52-week high ($38.34). 52-week range: $22.33 – $38.34.
How volatile is TOST stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 37% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 41.8%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does TOST have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy TOST?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 58, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 55% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
🔦 Keep analyzing
Other stocks Faro watches