Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 51% | $83.68 +0.2% | $81.20 – $86.24 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 52% | $84.07 +0.7% | $79.79 – $88.57 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 53% | $84.45 +1.2% | $78.95 – $90.33 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 55% | $85.42 +2.3% | $77.66 – $93.96 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 59% | $87.60 +4.9% | $76.31 – $100.57 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 67% | $96.44 +15.5% | $75.93 – $122.48 |
Recent momentum: -1.2% over 20 days · +6.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Construction of u.s. customs and border protection facility in jacksonville, fl
💡 Worth 3.25% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $144 M. Stock since the announcement: +2.1%.
The purpose of this design build to budget award is for the design and construction of a fuel pier and major cutter mooring at uscg base kodiak, ak.
💡 Worth 7.11% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $315 M. Stock since the announcement: -5.5%.
Design-build construction services to homeport us coast guard's fast response cutters (frc) in astoria, or (project number 30178383). new task order award.
💡 Worth 0.97% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $43 M. Stock since the announcement: -4%.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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