TTD — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Cash it generates. Most lacking: Sales engine and Faro seal.
Worth $7.3 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $73.5 B.
Sales -1% last quarter (year over year) and +18% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 76%, operating margin 19%, return on equity 12%.
Free cash flow $808 M a year = 11.0% of its value.
Trades at 2.5× sales: 0.27 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 15% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 2.6%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 76 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year TTD is down 64.8%. Over about two years: -88.2%.
- Today it sits 64.8% below its 52-week high ($44.20) and +30.4% above the low ($11.92).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 73.0%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 43% of days. Best day: +18.4%. Worst day: -21.9%.
- Annual volatility around 67%: in a normal year a ±67% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 58% | $15.50 -0.2% | $14.86 – $16.17 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 57% | $15.43 -0.7% | $14.34 – $16.61 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 55% | $15.36 -1.2% | $13.97 – $16.88 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 51% | $15.17 -2.4% | $13.27 – $17.35 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 45% | $14.78 -4.9% | $12.17 – $17.95 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 34% | $13.37 -13.9% | $9.55 – $18.73 |
Recent momentum: +18.3% over 20 days · +14.8% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for TTD. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about TTD
Could TTD be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 72/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has TTD fallen in the last year?
The Trade Desk (TTD) is down 64.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $15.54, 64.8% below its 52-week high ($44.20). 52-week range: $11.92 – $44.20.
How volatile is TTD stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 67% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 73.0%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does TTD have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy TTD?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 70, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 45% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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