Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 38% | $2.86 +0.2% | $2.69 – $3.03 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $2.87 +0.7% | $2.59 – $3.18 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 38% | $2.88 +1.2% | $2.52 – $3.30 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $2.92 +2.4% | $2.42 – $3.53 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 38% | $3.00 +5.1% | $2.28 – $3.94 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 42% | $3.31 +16.2% | $2.06 – $5.32 |
Recent momentum: -38.4% over 20 days · -48.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Sole-source IDIQ contract to supply antimony metal ingots to replenish the National Defense Stockpile.
💡 The only fully integrated U.S. antimony producer becomes a stockpile supplier. The contract sets demand; the stock price since then (down ~77% from its 52-week high) is the reminder that a contract is a floor for the business, not for the share price.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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