UCTT — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Room to grow. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Business quality.
Worth $2.3 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $22.9 B.
Sales +49% last quarter (year over year) and -2% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 16%, operating margin 4%, return on equity 5%.
Free cash flow −$143 M a year = -6.2% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 0.9× sales: 0.04 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 24% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 1.8%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 90 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year UCTT is up 85.1%. Over about two years: +33.7%.
- Today it sits 66.5% below its 52-week high ($142.59) and +120.7% above the low ($21.65).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 73.9%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 54% of days. Best day: +19.6%. Worst day: -17.8%.
- Annual volatility around 99%: in a normal year a ±99% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 44% | $47.81 +0.1% | $44.92 – $50.88 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 44% | $47.86 +0.2% | $42.97 – $53.31 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 43% | $47.92 +0.3% | $41.69 – $55.08 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 42% | $48.06 +0.6% | $39.47 – $58.52 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 41% | $48.37 +1.2% | $36.36 – $64.34 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 39% | $49.56 +3.7% | $30.23 – $81.24 |
Recent momentum: -14.4% over 20 days · -36.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for UCTT. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about UCTT
Could UCTT be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 57/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has UCTT gone up in the last year?
Ultra Clean (UCTT) is up 85.1% over the last 12 months and trades at $47.78, 66.5% below its 52-week high ($142.59). 52-week range: $21.65 – $142.59.
How volatile is UCTT stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 99% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 73.9%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does UCTT have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy UCTT?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 53, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 41% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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