UGA — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Multibagger DNA is computed for companies, not ETFs or funds.
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year UGA is up 129.4%. Over about two years: +134.7%.
- Today it sits 5.2% below its 52-week high ($152.88) and +139.1% above the low ($60.61).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 20.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 57% of days. Best day: +6.3%. Worst day: -9.6%.
- Annual volatility around 38%: in a normal year a ±38% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 53% | $145.17 +0.2% | $141.76 – $148.66 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 54% | $145.66 +0.5% | $139.79 – $151.78 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 56% | $146.16 +0.9% | $138.60 – $154.13 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 58% | $147.41 +1.7% | $136.75 – $158.91 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 62% | $150.21 +3.6% | $134.72 – $167.48 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 70% | $161.36 +11.3% | $133.64 – $194.84 |
Recent momentum: +1.0% over 20 days · +22.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for UGA. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has UGA gone up in the last year?
United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA) is up 129.4% over the last 12 months and trades at $144.92, 5.2% below its 52-week high ($152.88). 52-week range: $60.61 – $152.88.
How volatile is UGA stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 38% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 20.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does UGA have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy UGA?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 50, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 62% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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