UMAC — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Sales engine. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Business quality.
Worth $614 M. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $6.1 B.
Sales +551% last quarter (year over year) and +101% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 35%, operating margin -76%, return on equity -14%.
Free cash flow −$87 M a year = -14.2% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 14.1× sales: 0.11 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 42% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 5.7%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 18 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year UMAC is up 9.0%. Over about two years: +319.7%.
- Today it sits 65.3% below its 52-week high ($34.06) and +52.5% above the low ($7.76).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 68.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +57.2%. Worst day: -20.1%.
- Annual volatility around 115%: in a normal year a ±115% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 40% | $11.86 +0.2% | $11.03 – $12.75 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $11.92 +0.7% | $10.51 – $13.51 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 40% | $11.98 +1.2% | $10.19 – $14.08 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 41% | $12.12 +2.4% | $9.64 – $15.24 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 43% | $12.44 +5.1% | $8.93 – $17.34 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 46% | $13.75 +16.2% | $7.74 – $24.43 |
Recent momentum: -33.6% over 20 days · -58.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for UMAC. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Contracts Radar: Where $220 billion actually wentTwo months of federal contracts read one by one: 258 awards, which agencies pay, which companies get paid, how much mone…8 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about UMAC
Could UMAC be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 70/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has UMAC gone up in the last year?
Unusual Machines (UMAC) is up 9.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $11.84, 65.3% below its 52-week high ($34.06). 52-week range: $7.76 – $34.06.
How volatile is UMAC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 115% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 68.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does UMAC have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy UMAC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 31, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 43% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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