UNG — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Multibagger DNA is computed for companies, not ETFs or funds.
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year UNG is down 26.6%. Over about two years: -33.1%.
- Today it sits 43.3% below its 52-week high ($16.90) and +0.0% above the low ($9.58).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 43.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 52% of days. Best day: +19.7%. Worst day: -24.9%.
- Annual volatility around 36%: in a normal year a ±36% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 38% | $9.57 -0.1% | $9.36 – $9.79 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 37% | $9.56 -0.2% | $9.19 – $9.94 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 36% | $9.54 -0.4% | $9.07 – $10.03 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 34% | $9.50 -0.8% | $8.85 – $10.20 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 32% | $9.42 -1.7% | $8.50 – $10.44 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 28% | $9.11 -4.9% | $7.62 – $10.89 |
Recent momentum: -13.9% over 20 days · -4.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for UNG. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
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How much has UNG fallen in the last year?
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) is down 26.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $9.58, 43.3% below its 52-week high ($16.90). 52-week range: $9.58 – $16.90.
How volatile is UNG stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 36% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 43.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does UNG have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy UNG?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 36, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 32% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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