Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 58% | $401.15 -0.1% | $395.25 – $407.15 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 57% | $400.60 -0.2% | $390.45 – $411.02 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 57% | $400.05 -0.3% | $387.01 – $413.54 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 56% | $398.68 -0.7% | $380.42 – $417.82 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 54% | $395.68 -1.4% | $369.69 – $423.49 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 49% | $384.42 -4.2% | $341.75 – $432.43 |
Recent momentum: +6.5% over 20 days · -5.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Express report: r3 fy26 4th qtr july
💡 Worth 0.30% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $1.09 B. Stock since the announcement: +9.4%.
Express report: r2 fy26 4th qtr july
💡 Worth 0.21% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $771 M. Stock since the announcement: +9.4%.
Express report: r1 fy26 4th qtr july
💡 Worth 0.20% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $730 M. Stock since the announcement: +9.4%.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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