UPST — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Balance sheet and Faro seal.
Worth $1.9 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $19.0 B.
Sales +34% last quarter (year over year) and +64% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 83%, operating margin 8%, return on equity 8%.
Free cash flow $115 M a year = 6.1% of its value.
Trades at 1.4× sales: 0.03 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 87% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 13.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 58 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year UPST is down 50.6%. Over about two years: -72.3%.
- Today it sits 62.1% below its 52-week high ($50.70) and +0.0% above the low ($19.24).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 62.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +13.0%. Worst day: -15.0%.
- Annual volatility around 55%: in a normal year a ±55% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 37% | $19.19 -0.2% | $18.53 – $19.87 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 36% | $19.10 -0.7% | $17.98 – $20.28 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 34% | $19.01 -1.2% | $17.59 – $20.54 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 32% | $18.78 -2.4% | $16.83 – $20.96 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 28% | $18.30 -4.9% | $15.61 – $21.45 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 20% | $16.56 -13.9% | $12.57 – $21.81 |
Recent momentum: -22.3% over 20 days · -37.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for UPST. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about UPST
Could UPST be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 78/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has UPST fallen in the last year?
Upstart (UPST) is down 50.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $19.24, 62.1% below its 52-week high ($50.70). 52-week range: $19.24 – $50.70.
How volatile is UPST stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 55% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 62.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does UPST have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy UPST?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 33, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 28% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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