Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 50% | $1,030.06 +0.0% | $1,007.14 – $1,053.49 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 50% | $1,030.89 +0.1% | $991.50 – $1,071.86 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 51% | $1,031.73 +0.2% | $981.11 – $1,084.96 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 51% | $1,033.83 +0.4% | $962.83 – $1,110.05 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 53% | $1,038.45 +0.9% | $936.73 – $1,151.22 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 55% | $1,056.31 +2.6% | $883.57 – $1,262.81 |
Recent momentum: +1.6% over 20 days · -9.7% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
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The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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