USO — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Multibagger DNA is computed for companies, not ETFs or funds.
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year USO is up 140.0%. Over about two years: +132.0%.
- It is practically at its 52-week high ($169.53).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 32.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 56% of days. Best day: +12.9%. Worst day: -9.8%.
- Annual volatility around 47%: in a normal year a ±47% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 62% | $169.82 +0.2% | $164.86 – $174.92 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 62% | $170.39 +0.5% | $161.87 – $179.35 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 64% | $170.96 +0.8% | $160.01 – $182.66 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 66% | $172.41 +1.7% | $157.00 – $189.33 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 68% | $175.63 +3.6% | $153.35 – $201.15 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 73% | $188.50 +11.2% | $149.03 – $238.42 |
Recent momentum: +14.3% over 20 days · +33.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for USO. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has USO gone up in the last year?
United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) is up 140.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $169.53, practically at its 52-week high. 52-week range: $66.17 – $169.53.
How volatile is USO stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 47% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 32.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does USO have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy USO?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 91 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 68% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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