VSEC — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Sales engine. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Business quality.
Worth $5.2 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $52.0 B.
Sales +91% last quarter (year over year) and +3% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 17%, operating margin 13%, return on equity 6%.
Free cash flow −$248 M a year = -4.8% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 3.2× sales: 0.07 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 19% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 1.7%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (42%) · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 2 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year VSEC is up 5.8%. Over about two years: +52.8%.
- Today it sits 24.0% below its 52-week high ($243.48) and +30.2% above the low ($142.17).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 41.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 47% of days. Best day: +16.9%. Worst day: -13.7%.
- Annual volatility around 55%: in a normal year a ±55% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 57% | $185.28 +0.1% | $179.01 – $191.76 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 57% | $185.59 +0.3% | $174.86 – $196.98 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 57% | $185.90 +0.4% | $172.14 – $200.77 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 56% | $186.69 +0.8% | $167.45 – $208.15 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 55% | $188.44 +1.8% | $160.96 – $220.61 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 55% | $195.26 +5.5% | $148.60 – $256.56 |
Recent momentum: +14.6% over 20 days · -19.7% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for VSEC. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about VSEC
Could VSEC be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 62/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has VSEC gone up in the last year?
VSE (VSEC) is up 5.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $185.12, 24.0% below its 52-week high ($243.48). 52-week range: $142.17 – $243.48.
How volatile is VSEC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 55% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 41.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does VSEC have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy VSEC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 76 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 55% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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