WOLF — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Cash it generates. Most lacking: Business quality and Sales engine.
Worth $1.4 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $14.3 B.
Sales -21% last quarter (year over year) and -12% last fiscal year.
Gross margin -26%, operating margin -69%, return on equity —.
Free cash flow $547 M a year = 38.2% of its value.
Trades at 2.3× sales with no growth to back it.
Net debt equal to 55% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.9%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 39 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year WOLF is up 53.5%.
- Today it sits 63.7% below its 52-week high ($73.50) and +80.5% above the low ($14.80).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 72.7%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +24.5%. Worst day: -17.9%.
- Annual volatility around 112%: in a normal year a ±112% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 51% | $26.73 +0.1% | $24.91 – $28.67 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 50% | $26.76 +0.2% | $23.70 – $30.23 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 49% | $26.80 +0.3% | $22.90 – $31.36 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 48% | $26.89 +0.7% | $21.53 – $33.58 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 46% | $27.09 +1.4% | $19.63 – $37.37 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 43% | $27.86 +4.3% | $15.95 – $48.65 |
Recent momentum: +3.1% over 20 days · -8.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for WOLF. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about WOLF
Could WOLF be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 44/100 (weak): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has WOLF gone up in the last year?
Wolfspeed (WOLF) is up 53.5% over the last 12 months and trades at $26.71, 63.7% below its 52-week high ($73.50). 52-week range: $14.80 – $73.50.
How volatile is WOLF stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 112% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 72.7%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does WOLF have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy WOLF?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 59, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 46% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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